When to Gamble in MTT Tournaments - Adam Stemple

Gambling is a part of poker. Sure, you try to avoid it as much as possible--push out hands that are drawing to beat you and win without a showdown, get your money in with as big an advantage aspossible, fold when you're sure you're behind. But in tournaments, there are times when you are going to be forced to gamble. You'll need to slowplay those aces occasionally, move all-in when you know you're behind, maybe call a raise preflop with a hand you normally wouldn't. The key is to know the right time to do it. Pot odds (which is a big umbrella that includes actual odds, implied odds, and reverse implied odds) are the major factor in all poker decisions. But in tournaments, another factor comes into play strongly: the tournament situation. The tournament situation is comprised of a lot of factors, but the main ones I consider when deciding whether to gamble or not are:

1. How far I am from the money or the next jump in payout
2. My stack size in relation to my opponent
3. My stack size in relation to the blinds/antes (My "M" in the parlance of Harrington on Holdem. If you have not read his books you need to if you want to play in tournaments.)

Tournaments, like all poker contests, are about money. There has been a lot of talk about trying to "win the tournament, not just make the money." That's all well and good, but I know one thing about every tournament ever won: the champion made the money before he won. It's an inevitable step. As is making the final table. You have to do both before you win it.

Having said that, I don't like to limp into the money with practically no shot at winning the whole thing. What does this mean? Let's look at it in stages.

The Early Goings: The tournament has just started, or is in the second or third round. The first break is still a ways off and your M is over 20. You are far from the money.

This is a good spot to gamble. Time is money, and you haven't invested much at this point. But you have invested your entry fee. Don't discount that. It is better to bust out early than on the bubble, but this is not an excuse to play like a maniac. The blinds aren't putting any pressure on you yet, so there's no real reason to get involved in a hand, but there's a lot of dead money out there, and you need to pick up your share before you have to face tougher competition in the later rounds.

You should play suited connectors and small pairs a little more liberally here. If you flop a set, play it slow and try to get an inattentive player with top pair to double you up. Later on, I won't play small pairs in early position or to a raise, because the blinds alone will be high enough to injure all but the biggest of stacks. But early on you can limp into a pot and throw your hand away to a raise multiple times without hurting your stack. This also helps you figure out who the aggressive players at the table are so you can trap them by limping with a big pair later.

With the low suited connectors, I will limp in looking to pick up a big draw--a pair and a four flush, any straight draw and a four flush, any draw with 12 or more outs--I will play it very aggressively and try to get all my chips in on the flop. It is early, and a good time to gamble. I am unlikely to be very far behind, and if I bust out I haven't invested much time. Make sure you have a good draw and the fold equity you gain by making a big move will more than make up for those times you get called and are a slight dog. If you do double up, you will have a big stack at your table, and be viewed as a player who is willing to gamble. This will allow to you pick up a lot of small pots--people have seen you put your tournament life at risk on a draw. They won't want to get involved with you now that you have them outchipped without a solid holding.

In the early rounds you want to make sure to gamble against players who have a lot of chips. Maybe even have you covered. You need the potential payoff to be big if you are going to call with these substandard hands. Now is the time to take a few long shots at doubling up. Don't take your 45s up against a player who has already been crippled; there's no payoff. Try to get in a multiway pot with big stacks or ones that are even with you. Catch the right flop and you can grab a lot of chips early.

Middle Rounds: Blinds are beginning to hurt many stacks; M can be wildly divergent based on early round play. The bubble is approaching but not a consideration yet.

It took me a long time to figure out how to play this section of a tournament. It is really dependent on how my stack is. If I am in good shape compared to the blinds (M of 15+) generally play fairly tight ABC poker. I will maybe pull off a squeeze or two if my M is over 20, but this is not a great time to try to accumulate chips. No one is particularly desperate or scared, and the blinds are neither pressuring too many people nor are they big enough to take any big risks to nab them.

If I gamble now, it is only going to be against stacks I have well covered, so if I lose, I won't get hurt too badly. The game is still full ring at all tables, so even with an M around 10 you can afford to be patient. Additionally, even with a big stack, it is hard to dominate a full ring game. There is very often a legitimately big hand out there against you. Get too overaggressive and your big stack will become average in an awfully big hurry.

The Bubble: Depending on the size of the tournament, 1-30 people away from the money.

The bubble is a great time to be aggressive. It is not a good time to gamble. If your stack is small, you don't have the capacity to scare anyone into folding--your fold equity is nearly zero. And if you get called and taken out, it's an absolute disaster. Now you have wasted two hours and gotten nothing in return. Don't discount just making your money back in a tournament. It adds up. Money not lost is exactly the same as money won.

If you have a medium stack, why gamble? You can skate into the money nearly without risk. Unless you pick up a big hand, or have people to your left playing even more conservatively than you whose blinds you can steal, there is no reason to get involved.

If you have a big stack--hopefully the chip lead at your table--you still don't want to gamble. If people are trying to coast into the money, you should be taking their blinds with impunity. The games are often a little shorthanded and you can now use aggression effectively. If someone plays back at you and you have a marginal hand, let it go. Why gamble with it? If you lose, you might lose a big enough chunk to damage your ability to steal more blinds. And even worse, if you win, you might burst the bubble and again, lose your wondrous ability to steal a ton of blinds--blinds that are starting to get high enough to matter. I once went from 4000 to 10,000 in chips in an SnG by continually folding to the smallest stack and stealing ruthlessly from the other two stacks who were trying to money.

In the Money: $$$.

The first three hours of tourney you earned nothing; now it's time to get paid!

I let my gamble ebb and flow depending on how fast people are dropping. If the next money jump is ten people away, I will stay tight and watch the people drop. You can move up very quickly right after the bubble without playing a hand. But if shortstacked, or a decent opportunity presents itself, now is a good time to gamble. But again, it depends on how fast and for how much these breaks are coming. In the 500k Guarantee on Party, the bubble breaks at 400 people. Then it's usually another 80 until the next jump in money, and sometimes that's as little as a $10 bump. Then another 80 for $20. I don't know about you, but I'm pretty ready to race for all my chips and try to double up when it's going to be another 160 people before the money starts to get good.

Essentially if the breaks are far away and/or the money jump very small, I will be inclined to gamble. If they're coming fast and furious and people are dropping left and right, stay above the fray and get paid.

When players are dropping slowly, but the money jumps are significant and close together (towards the end of big tourneys, you can make thousands of dollars by outlasting 10 more people) I will gamble if there are 8-10 till the next jump, and tighten up as we get near the next mini-bubble. Tightening up doesn't mean I won't be stealing a fair amount if it's short handed, but I won't be calling a reraise looking to pick up a miracle, and if I do pick up a big hand, I will rarely slowplay it.

The Final Table: More $$$!

Now the money breaks start to get real good. But the top three is where the FU money* resides. If you get a chance at a gamble that's good enough to practically guarantee that you'll get into the top three (where you can often cut a deal to get better than 2nd place money even when a little shortstacked) take it. Otherwise, keep moving up the ladder and looking for chances to double up.

Your M:

When my M hits 10 I get pretty aggressive with my good hands. It's not quite desperate enough that I want to knowingly get involved in a big pot I'm behind in, but if I pick up a decent hand and am first in, or a preflop caller/raiser is showing weakness, I'm going to put all my chips in the middle. When my M gets close to five, I'm going to be a smallstack bully. I need the blinds/antes and I need them now! First in vigorish becomes paramount to give me the best fold equity possible. But if my M is low enough, I'm coming in with any reasonable hand no matter how much action is before me.

Your Stack vs. Your Opponents':

Only in the opening rounds do you want to gamble against opponent's who have you covered. You're going to be taking a look at a few flops with some long odds at hitting them hard enough to continue in the hand. You need the payoff to be there if you succeed. After that, you would much prefer to be gambling against players who can't hurt you as badly if they win. Especially if you are slowplaying. That particular gamble is all about letting your opponent get some cards free or cheap because he is drawing thin against your monster. On those few occasions when they do hit their hands, you don't want your tournament to end. Conversely, I will play the same hand very fast against a stack that has me covered. I can't afford to let them catch any cheap cards and take me out.

Other Considerations--

Skill Level:

If you are much better than your opponents, don't get yourself in marginal situations with them. Why race with a donkey when you know you can lever yourself into better position in a different hand. If the competition is really stiff, take away your opponents' legs by moving in far earlier in a hand than you normally would. End confrontations quickly and don't let them outplay you.

How big is the Field?

When tournaments have 1000+ entries, there are going to be some monster stacks when you get close to and in the money. You're going to need the same to compete. Extend your gambling period into the middle rounds to try to get the big stack you're going to need to get into the money.

In smaller fields, you won't need as big a stack to be at par with the rest of the field. Avoid exposing yourself unnecessarily.

*FU Money---the amount of money required to be able to say "F.U." to anybody on the planet.