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A Blind Stealing Primer - Seal

Even though I have said as much in a few of my videos, I know that there are some people who are visual rather than auditory learners. These people learn something better if they see it or read it than if they hear it. For these people, and to have a written record that is easy to look up I present a primer on stealing the blinds. I'd like to start with the math reason why it is of more value to steal only after the antes kick in. To do this let's look at an imaginary player in a tournament.

At the 100/200 level with no antes there was 300 chips in the pot before anyone called. Let's say it was folded around to him on the button and he raised it to 500 with lousy cards in an attempt to steal. If both blinds folded he would win the 300 chips. Let's say the very next hand again it is folded around and he again tries to steal, only this time the big blind reraises him and he is forced to fold. This time he loses 500 chips. His net change for the two attempts is 300 gained minus 500 lost or he is down 200 chips. Had he succeeded in stealing two out of three times, his net change would be 600 gained minus 500 lost or he is ahead 100 chips. So, without antes, to make even a small profit he has to succeed in stealing at least two out of every three times.

Now let's change the scenario just a little by adding an ante of 25 chips. With nine players at the table that makes 225 chips in the pot from the ante plus the 300 from the blinds for a total of 525 chips. Now if he succeeds in stealing once out of two times his net change is 525 gained minus 500 lost for a 25 chip profit. If he succeeds two out of three times his net change is 1050 gained minus 500 lost for a 550 chip profit.

This is a huge increase from only adding a small ante and it is much easier to only have to succeed in stealing one out of two times. These days when most decent players have learned to occasionally repop a late position raiser from their blinds, the success rate of normal position steals is at an all time low. It's better to give yourself the mathematical edge that comes when you steal a bigger pot.

Also mentioned in the above example is a raise to two and a half times the big blind as a steal raise. You should be able to tell from the math that this raise amount is the perfect steal raise. It is small enough that you don't lose too much if called or reraised and big enough to not be a min raise. If you like, you can even make it an odd value that is close to two and a half times the big blind, like making it 498 chips instead of 500 in the above example. But I believe it is important to keep your raises the same size. So, whether you are stealing or have pocket rockets, once you pick a raise size, stick with it. This way nobody ever knows where you're at.

Now let's consider the value of position when stealing. If you attempt a steal when you are first to act, there are eight or nine players still to act behind you. Although the odds that any one player has been dealt a premium hand is fairly low, the odds that at least one out of ten players has been dealt a premium hand is a bit higher. So, having less players to act behind you decreases the odds that somebody will have a hand. Of course, stealing on the button gives you the greatest chance with only the two blinds to act behind you.

I know I said this would only be a primer, but I'd like to take just a quick second to talk about second level thinking. Since I mentioned this one earlier, let's use position as an example. Since most players know that it is to their advantage to steal from the button, a thinking player may decide to reraise a button raiser from their blind. This is an example of the thinking player using second level thinking, or taking what he thinks his opponent is thinking into account before acting.

You can also take this a step further. Knowing that you are likely to get reraised if you only steal on the button, vary your steals a few positions away from the button to get more credibility for your raise. Perhaps in a future article I'll go into more detail about different levels of thought and how it should affect your play, but for now happy stealing!

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