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The BASICS - WillisNYC

When I first started playing poker, everything was about the odds.  I played limit ring a lot and needed to know if certain calls were justified.  My first poker book listed all those "drawing"odds in a neat little chart that I copied and taped to the side of my computer monitor.  It stayed there until I memorized those numbers and hard coded them into my brain. When I started playing a lot more NL ring, those numbers helped me to make good decisions quickly. Below is a copy of that chart with some explanations.

#of Outs     Odds w/2 cards   Odds w/1 cards   Examples
21 70.1%  45.7% Open end str8 flush draw with 2 overs
20 67.5%  43.5%   
19 65.0%  41.3%  
18 62.4% 39.1%  
17 59.8% 37.0%  
16 57% 34.8%  
15 54.1% 32.6%  Open end str8 flush draw
14 51.2% 30.4%  
13 48.1%  28.3%  
12 45.0% 26.1%  Flush draw with one over
11 41.7%  23.9%  
10 38.4% 21.7%  Flopped set, missed turn, need FH
9 35.0%  19.6%  Flush draw
8 31.5%  17.4%  Open end Str8 draw or double gut
7 27.8% 15.2% Flopped a set, need a FH to win
6 24.1% 13.0%  
5 20.4%  10.9% Have a pr, need to pr your kicker
4 16.5%  8.7% Inside (gutshot) straight draw
3 12.5%  6.5%  
2 8.4%    4.3% You have pp and need a set
1 4.3%    2.2%  

You also need some other numbers ‘hard-wired' about preflop odds for different types of starting hands. 

The odds of flopping a full house or other stronger hand are so low (.09% or less) as to be considered insignificant.

However the following stats are VERY significant.

For instance, if you are heads up, what are the chances that your opponent has at least a pair after the flop?  (31.2% 1 time of 17 he has a pp and the other times he hits one of his hole cards.  A pair on the board doesn't count.)

You will be dealt a pocket pair once every 17 hands and AA once every 221 hands.
You have a pocket pair (pp) and need a set on the flop to continue.  (12.5% or 1 chance in 8)

The flop has a pr like KKQ.  What are the odds of your opponent having another K?  (1.347% or 74 to 1 AGAINST)

If you have unpaired cards, how often will you flop 2 pair?  (Not counting a board pair)
2% or 50 to 1 against!

Your cards are both the same suit, what are the chances of flopping a flush draw?  (10.944% or 8.13 to 1 against)

With paired connectors you have the following chances:

'Made' hands:
flopping full house:  0.09%
flopping flush:  0.8%
flopping straight:  1.3%
flopping trips:  1.3%
flopping two pair: 2.02%

Draws:
flopping open ended draw: 10.4%
flopping flush draw:  10.9%

Hence, 5.5% of the time you will flop a made ‘hand' but 21.3% of the 26.8%  (or 80%)of the time you flop a ‘hand' it will still be a draw with about a 1/3 chance of the draw completing by the river.

If you don't already have all these numbers hardwired into your brain, I suggest that you copy this chart and tape it to your monitor as I did when I was a beginning poker player.

 

 


  Authors  


 


Adam Stemple (hatfield13)

Brian Willis (WillisNYC)

Chris "Fox" Wallace

David "Seal" Eisentein

 

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